Analyzing Vance Worley

Will Vance Worley avoid the "sophomore jinx" in 2012?  Worley pitched four perfect innings against Pittsburgh yesterday - not a bad way to answer the question, Vance.  But this is still just Spring Training, so here are a few things to pay attention to with Worley:

1. Are hitters swinging and missing? 
Worley went an entire game last season without a single swing-and-a-miss.  Pitching to contact is not a terrible thing because it keeps your pitch count down, but too much contact is awfully dangerous.  Yesterday, Worley watched a lot of whiffs.  As he put it, "Of course, I'd rather pitch to contact because it helps you get deeper into games, but if they're going to swing at them and miss, I'll take them."

2. How many called third strikes?
Worley had huge success last season with a cut fastball that tailed back over the plate to left-handed hitters.  But that won't last forever.  Players watch tape and will not get fooled on that pitch much longer.  If and when that percentage drops is when we will see what Worley can really offer.

3. Is he throwing the fabled "split-finger changeup" that Dubee taught him?  If Worley wants positive answers to questions 1 and 2, he needs to develop a pitch with some bite on it.  Worley demonstrated good command and great poise, but he didn't have a devastating pitch to put a hitter away. 

Think of Worley as a better version of Kyle Kendrick.  When players figured Kendrick out, he started to really get hit around, at which point the Phillies basically told him to find a new pitch or go away.  When Kendrick finally mastered that new pitch (cutter) he became valuable enough for two years and around 3 million bucks. 

Worley is probably on a similar path.  If he stays exactly the same, he may be pitching for Lehigh Valley in a couple of months.  But if he can find the nasty pitch he needs, he could do special things this season.

4. Does his attitude change?  Worley is different, and I like it.  Worley said yesterday regarding his first outing, "I know you're not supposed to sit and think about stuff that happened, but I did and I wasn't happy about it for four days."  Yep, still the same.  Comments like those tell me he is the same quirky guy we saw last year. 

That is your homework for Spring Training.  With nothing else that interesting going on with the Phillies, your only assignment is to keep your eyes on Worley.